Iran Struggles to Deter Israel

On April 13, Iran launched a barrage of drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles against Israel to retaliate for the April 1 bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus that killed two Iranian generals, among others. Iran’s retaliatory strike aimed at preventing further Israeli attacks on sovereign Iranian territory, but Iran demonstrably failed in achieving this objective: Israel attacked a radar site in Iran on April 19 and is also suspected of having perpetrated the July 31 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas Political Bureau chairman, in Tehran. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders have promised a retaliatory attack against Israel but haven’t expanded on the nature of such an attack, and IRGC mouthpieces have merely quoted translations of articles in Israeli and U.S. media. Other media outlets openly warn against a response that would entangle the United States in a direct military conflict with Iran. For now, Iran appears to be struggling to find a way to respond that contributes to deterring Israel, as IRGC-aligned pundits are reduced to lauding the economic costs and psychological terror its delayed response has imposed on Israel. 

• August 5: IRGC chief commander Major General Hossein Salami was quoted by Tabnak News, mouthpiece of former IRGC Chief Commander Mohsen Rezaei, as saying:  
  • “The Zioinist regime was born in a cradle of terror and possesses none of the constituent elements of nationhood. This regime has created a whirlpool of fire around itself. It thinks it is capable of preventing a nation from achieving nuclear power by assassinating its nuclear scientists. By assassinating a revolutionary leader, and a freedom fighter, who is trying to reclaim his land, this regime thinks it can secure its own survival … But once they receive a hard answer, they will realize their miscalculation.”    
• August 5: IRGC mouthpiece Tasnim News, quoting an alleged report by Israeli public radio, wrote: “The Israelis are gripped by fear and terror, as they await the response to the assassination any moment.” 
• August 5: Tasnim News, claiming to quote Israel Hayom, wrote: “The delay in Iran’s response may be due to its work on the launchers, but the delay too has added to Israel’s problems, and has, at the very least imposed economic losses on Israel.”  
• August 6: IRGC mouthpiece Mashregh News quoted alleged reports from unidentified “Zionist media” on the missile types Iran is likely to deploy against Israel in its retaliatory attack. 
• August 9: Mohammad Hossein Adeli, former ambassador to the United Kingdom, in an interview with reformist Entekhab, warned against a disproportionate response to the Haniyeh assassination:  
  • “The assassination of Haniyeh was a terrorist act aiming at increasing regional tensions and entangling Iran in a direct war. The aim was that Iran would retaliate so that Netanyahu could entangle Iran and the United States in a war. Such a scenario serves Netanyahu’s interests, since it would derail discussions about a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, do away with the two-state solution, and even lead to the defeat of the Democrats and Trump’s victory” in the U.S. presidential election.  

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