"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Has Iran Left Its Afghan Allies to Their Own Devices?

The August 5 edition of the Iran Media Review assesses Iran’s silence regarding the targeting of Afghanistan’s Shia population.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

There was a time when the Islamic Republic prided itself on its proxies, which helped the regime offset limitations in its traditional military capabilities and ensured plausible deniability when interfering in internal affairs of other states. Shia Afghans were among those allies, who were deployed, fought, and suffered significant casualties in the civil war in Syria. More recently, Iran appears to have left its Afghan allies to their own devices hoping to achieve better relations with the Taliban regime.  

  • June 8: The clearest example of Afghans complaining of being abandoned by Iran was expressed by Hamed Karimi, former Afghan Interior Ministry advisor, in a piece released by Diplomasi-ye Irani (Iranian Diplomacy), which is close to the Iranian Foreign Ministry. “The Islamic Republic of Iran, which is the claimant of leadership of the Shia world, has managed to use its position to exert influence in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Iraq,” Karimi wrote. He continued, Iran “is now facing a serious challenge: Afghan Shia, who compose the ‘Fatemiyoun Division’ and played a considerable role in securing Iran’s military objectives, particularly in Syria, have become targets in Afghanistan and are being systematically killed.” Karimi admitted Iran’s direct intervention in “the Afghan quagmire” will further complicate matters for Tehran but warned “Iran’s silence harms its leadership position in the Shia world.” 
  • July 31: Tasnim News, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported clashes between Iran’s border patrol and Taliban forces on the Hirmand border. Quoting Taliban sources, Tasnim reported one Taliban fighter was killed in the clashes and that the Taliban “tried to raise the Taliban banner in an area that was not Afghanistan’s soil,” which led to intensified fire exchanges between the two parties. 

The most recent clash between Iran and the Taliban was perhaps caused by local circumstances, and the two parties may well learn the art of peaceful coexistence in the future, but for the time being, the Islamic Republic appears to have forsaken its old allies, without gaining new friends. 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)
View All

Events

Mar 2, 2026

12:00pm - 1:00pm

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI will host a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Register
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
View All