Anxious Allies: The Iran Nuclear Framework in its Regional Context
The framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program achieved by the U.S.-led P5+1 international coalition in many ways goes further, and is significantly more detailed, than most observers had considered possible.
The framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program achieved by the U.S.-led P5+1 international coalition in many ways goes further, and is significantly more detailed, than most observers had considered possible. However, even as it opens up additional possibilities regarding diplomacy with Iran and the potential for a long-term solution to the question of its nuclear agenda, it leaves significant questions unanswered and raises new concerns that must be urgently addressed. In particular, questions likely to arise in Congress and elsewhere about the specifics of the framework, and perhaps even more significantly among traditional U.S. allies in the Middle East regarding the overall context of the agreement, will have to be effectively answered.
For the Gulf Arab countries, the future is more important than the present, but it is unclear if Iran, the United States, and Israel have the same vision.
The imperative for Gulf states to unify their position has grown since the onset of Iranian attacks on their countries. Yet under conditions of uncertainty about the U.S. position and the war's outcome, Gulf states are demonstrating differing regional alignments and preferences for managing the crisis.
On March 24 and April 1, AGSI hosted briefings for European diplomats during which AGSI scholars analyzed the Gulf states’ reactions to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the Iranian response.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi urged President Trump not to attack Iran, but now that the war is into its second month, leaving the current situation in place would be an unthinkable fiasco for them.
Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution.
After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world.
Gulf Arab countries urged the United States not to strike Iran, but now that is happening, they are in danger of being sucked into a conflict they cannot control but that will likely reshape their present and future realities.
On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
