Abandoned by China, Iran Gravitates Toward Russia’s Orbit

In the past, Iran deftly played the East and West against each other to extract concessions from both and secure the regime’s survival. In recent decades, the regime abandoned this policy and increasingly oriented itself toward the East, mainly Russia and China. Today, the regime, which appears to have been abandoned by China, is fast gravitating toward Russia’s orbit. In the short term, this approach may help Iran bypass the international sanctions regime, but in the longer term, dependency on Russia will limit Tehran’s diplomatic maneuverability. 

• January 29: Ali Fekri, deputy minister of finance, in an interview with Shargh daily, voiced criticism of China and praised increased Russian investments in Iran. He said that since President Ebrahim Raisi took office, “the Chinese have invested $185 million in 25 different projects in Iran … We are not happy with this level … Lack of Chinese investments is often due to the sanctions regime against Iran … In comparison, China has signed a $150 billion oil contract with the Taliban regime, which is not even recognized by most countries in the world. By next year, the level of China’s investments in Afghanistan is projected to reach $540 billion,” a figure that cannot be independently corroborated. “With $2.7 billion worth of investments, more than half of all foreign direct investments, Russia is the biggest investor in Iran … the United Arab Emirates is the second-largest investor, followed by Turkey, China, and Afghanistan.” Fekri also explained “the majority of Emirati investors are in reality not Emiratis, but are from other countries, and most of this investment was in the industry and mining sectors.” 
• January 29: Central Bank Governor Mohammad-Reza Farzin tweeted: “A direct link was established between banks in Iran and Russia. Within the framework of cooperation between the central banks of Iran and Russia, apart from the direct link to Russian banks, our country’s banking network will be linked with 106 foreign non-Russian banks.” 
• January 30: Hossein Chakhmaqi, a columnist for Sobh-e Sadeq, a weekly publication of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, explained the deepening ties between Iran and Russia: “These days, the Islamic Republic’s trade relations with Russia encompass everything from clothing and food to automobiles and even military armaments … Two countries under sanctions regimes have discovered that they can be trustworthy partners in political, economic, and social fields. This is why they are trying to make up for negligence of the past.” 
• January 30: In a Fars News Agency interview, Mohsen Karimi, Central Bank of Iran international affairs director, discussed banking cooperation between Iran and Russia. Karimi said: “For various reasons, Iran has been sanctioned by SWIFT, which is a challenge to Iran’s banking relations with other countries … which is why Iran, and other countries sanctioned by SWIFT, have developed their own national systems. We have it in Iran, and Russia too has created such a system … Now that we have connected the banking systems of Iran and Russia, we no longer need SWIFT … 700 Russian banks can engage with financial transfers with Iranian banks. Apart from this, 106 banks from 13 countries besides Russia are part of this cooperation.” 

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