Iran Signals Deterrence Paired With Diplomacy

As Iran prepares for the next round of negotiations with the United States, Iranian officials and media signaled calibrated deterrence against a threatened U.S. military strike paired with conditional openness to diplomacy.

• February 24: According to economic newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani is heading to Muscat, Oman in preparation for indirect negotiations scheduled with the United States for February 26 in Geneva, Switzerland. An unnamed Foreign Ministry source told the newspaper that Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is also likely to be present at the negotiations.
• February 24: SNSC-affiliated Nour News Agency posted on X about alleged tensions among the United States’ political and military leadership over a potential military confrontation with Iran:
  • “The issue that has today created a rift between #Trump and the military commanders is not the capability to strike Iran; it is the lack of a plan for the day after the strike. America can pull the trigger, but it does not know how to contain the chain of consequences following #Iran’s response. Today’s deterrence stems from the #unknown_consequences of starting a war, not from a shortage of weapons.”
• February 24: Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, commenting on President Donald J. Trump’s threat of “limited strikes” against Iran, was quoted by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Javan as saying:
  • “There is no such a thing as ‘limited strikes.’ An act of aggression is an act of aggression, and any government would regard such an act as aggression. Within the framework of the inherent right to self-defense, our decisive response will therefore be firm and proportionate.”
• February 24: Reformist Shargh interviewed two foreign policy experts on the prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva:
  • Asgar Qahremanpour said: “Tehran has sought to create a link between nuclear security and economic interests by designing a three-tier package. The package includes continuing enrichment at a managed level along with confidence-building mechanisms, readiness to return to broader inspections, and tying these concessions to sanctions relief and U.S. economic participation in areas such as aircraft sales and oil projects … This approach recalls the logic of the JCPOA, with the difference that Iran is seeking more tangible economic guarantees.”
  • Mohsen Jalilvand said: “Given the wide gap between the positions of the two sides, the likelihood of persuading Trump through this package is very low; Trump’s maximalist demands essentially repeat what Netanyahu wants, and Iran has no option but resistance.”
• February 24: Hassan Hanizadeh, a regional affairs expert, said in an interview with reformist Etemad:
  • “Iran will offer its proposals to the United States through Grossi … which entails Iran reducing its level of uranium enrichment to the lowest levels … the stockpile of enriched uranium … can be transferred to a country like Oman for safekeeping under the supervision of the IAEA.”
  • “In return, the United States will remove a considerable part of the sanctions imposed on Iran since 2018.”

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