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Analysis

Iranian-Saudi Rapprochement: Provocateur Hung Out to Dry

The May 30 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian officials’ willingness to sacrifice an anti-Saudi hard-liner to preserve Iran’s relationship with the kingdom.

Ali Alfoneh

11 min read

On May 29, Gholam-Reza Qassemian – an influential religious cantor and host of Islamic programming on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting – returned to Iran following his arrest and brief detention in Saudi Arabia. While on pilgrimage, Qassemian posted videos on social media, since deleted, in which he accused the Saudi ruling family of “usurping and commodifying” the custodianship of the Kaaba. He provocatively declared: “If you seek gambling, brothels, and lewd concerts, there is no need to go to Antalya – just come to Mecca or Medina, where the clock has turned back to the era of the Umayyads,” a period viewed by Shias as one of illegitimate Sunni rule following the Prophet Muhammad’s death. Qassemian is rumored to have played a behind-the-scenes role in inciting the January 2016 attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, which precipitated the rupture of diplomatic relations between the two regional powers. While he faced no legal consequences for that incident, his vilification by Iranian authorities is a notable change. Tehran appears increasingly willing to sacrifice domestic hard-line voices to preserve its strategic rapprochement with Riyadh, formalized in the March 2023 China-brokered agreement. 

  • May 27: In an Arabic post on X, Ali-Reza Enayati, ambassador to Riyadh, praised Saudi authorities for hosting the pilgrims and emphasized:  
    • “Nobody tolerates insulting words or deeds.” 
  • May 27: Ali-Reza Bayat, head of the Iran Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization, addressed Iranian pilgrims, as quoted by Donya-ye Eqtesad: 
    • “Refrain from engaging in polarizing activities. We consistently urge the pilgrims to respect Saudi laws.” 
  • May 27: Judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir was quoted by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mouthpiece Mashregh News: 
    • “The Judiciary does not approve of the statements made by this individual. Naturally, his positions reflect his personal viewpoints … but we will defend the rights of all Iranian nationals … We hope that, in cooperation with Saudi authorities, this problem is solved so we see the release of Mr. Qassemian.” 
  • May 27: Centrist Asr-e Iran published an editorial on the Qassemian affair: 
    • “If someone visits Iran and makes a video in front of the Imam Reza Shrine claiming Iran’s leaders are usurpers capitalizing on the shrine, accuses Iranian officials of running brothels, and disseminates the video online … would our authorities not treat him the way the Saudi security officials treated Qassemian? A guest must abide by the rules of the house he is visiting, instead of insulting the host, accusing him of usurpation, capitalizing on the Kaaba, or harboring atheist thoughts … Even if this man escapes from Saudi courts, he must be prosecuted in Iran, so he and others understand that such deeds – be they arsonist attacks against embassies or starting a fire with words – have consequences … By the way, where are these centers, and why is Qassemian the only person aware of their addresses?!” 
  • May 28: Gholam-Reza Qassemian posted a photo on X showing him onboard a plane en route to Iran via Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 
  • May 28: Hojjat al-Islam Ali Saeedi, director of the Political-Ideological Indoctrination Directorate of the Office of the Supreme Leader, issued a written statement published by Iranian media, including centrist Borna: 
    • “When people, disregarding the political, social, and security implications, make statements, it is either a sign of their megalomania, narcissism, boasting, delusions, or riding the wave of populism with political motivations … In doing so, they create trouble for the authorities and the people.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme

Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Ali Alfoneh

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Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds Day rally in Tehran, Iran, May 31, 2019. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

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In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

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Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

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In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)
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Events

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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