"*" indicates required fields

Subscribe

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Islamic Republic Prepares Itself for Anniversary of Anti-Regime Protests

The September 12 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights comments on Iran’s 2022 protests from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

While Iran’s reformist media has remained silent on the upcoming anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s September 16, 2022 death in the custody of the morality police and the ensuing anti-regime protests, Sobh-e Sadeq, the official mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that a lack of leadership, ideology, and popular support led to the defeat of the protests. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for his part, warned of sinister plans of Iran’s enemies. The publication of the Sobh-e Sadeq article itself demonstrates the regime’s concerns about renewed protests, and so does Khamenei’s speech.

  • September 11: Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, chief of the IRGC’s Political Bureau, wrote in Sobh-e Sadeq: “As we are getting closer to the anniversary of the 2022 riots, rereading and identifying the nature of last year’s events is a necessity. Last year, our nation, which is devoted to Ashura and Imam Hussein,” referencing the annual commemoration of the Shia prophet and martyr, “was faced with an unprecedented, global, and historical hybrid war. The plotters of this war were the enemies and opponents of the Islamic Revolution, the rule of guardianship,” referencing the mode of government in the constitution of the Islamic Republic, “and the Iranian nation over the past 44 years. Deploying all their capacities and capabilities in the battle against the Islamic Republic, the planners, players, and those deceived by them thought the Islamic Republic had reached its end and saw themselves as the victors of this battle. Yes, such delusions created in cyberspace made celebrities, the youth, and youngsters outdo themselves” in the fight against the regime, “perhaps in an attempt to create a shining revolutionary pedigree for themselves that they would pride themselves in the day after the revolution and claim government offices … However, these delusional planners and players did not realize that in order for a revolution to take shape and prevail, it must rest on the three pillars of the people, ideology, and leadership. Did the people who thought themselves revolutionary a year ago, and who described as a ‘revolution’ what was really a plot of the intelligence services of at least 20 countries aimed at destroying and disintegrating Iran, not ask themselves who the leader of this revolution was? Did they not ask what the ideology of this revolution was or where the Iranian nation was in the revolution?”
  • September 11: Brigadier General Ramezan Sharif, the IRGC’s spokesperson, said, as quoted by center-right Farda News: “We should explain the revolution and the regime to the young generation, create hope for the future, and speak soft words to them so they do not get trapped in the psychological operations of the enemy.”
  • September 11: According to Khamenei’s official website, while addressing a group of visitors from Sistan and Baluchistan province, he warned Iranians of sinister enemy plots: “When we say the enemy is getting weaker, it does not mean that it is incapable of plotting, engaging in hostility, or dealing blows to us. It is capable of it, and they are plotting … We are not uninformed about the enemy’s plans for us. No, we are not uninformed. Intelligence is telling us that the United States government has established a so-called “Crisis Group.” What is the responsibility of this group? Well, the group’s mission is to instigate crises around the world, including in our country … After having studied us, they reached the conclusion that one point they can take advantage of is ethnic conflicts. Another one is sectarian differences. A third one is gender and the women issue. So, these are the points they are working on to provoke Iranians, instigate crises in Iran, and, through these crises, deal blows to our dear country. This is the plan of the United States. But these are nothing but pipe dreams! What the enemy wants is to reduce Iran into a state similar to Syria or Yemen. Of course, they cannot do a damned thing, and there is no doubt about it, but their inability is conditioned on our vigilance.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

The Pragmatist Who Came In From the Cold: Ali Larijani, Iran’s New Supreme National Security Council Secretary

An Iraqi-born native of Najaf but an unmistakably Iranian nationalist, Ali Larijani is expected to leverage his record of bureaucratic competence and global fluency to coordinate Iran’s security bureaucracy.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Iranian Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, greets journalists upon his arrival to meet with the Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Iran: Perilous Policy Paralysis

Confronted with the clear and present danger posed by Israel, Iran’s collective leadership appears mired in policy paralysis, leaving Iran strategically adrift.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet in Tehran, Iran, August 27, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)

Iran: Emergence of Collective Leadership Amid Low-Intensity Conflict

Israel’s ongoing low-intensity warfare has marginalized Iran's supreme leader and empowered a collective leadership.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian attend an endorsement ceremony in Tehran, Iran, July 28, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA /Handout via REUTERS)

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iran's army commander-in-chief General Amir Hatami attends a video call with top commanders in Zolfaghar central headquarters, Iran, June 23. (Iranian Army Press Service via AP)
View All

Events

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)

Jun 16, 2025

Assessing Iranian, U.S., and Gulf Reactions and Options Following Israel’s Unprecedented Attack on Iran

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on Israel's attack on Iran.

Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Rescuers work at the scene of a damaged building in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Apr 29, 2025

The Real Deal? Are Washington and Tehran Closer to a Compromise?

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi prior to negotiations with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
View All