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Analysis

Fearing Disproportionate Israeli Response, Iran Targets U.S. Bases in Syria

The March 28 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights an Iranian official’s threats against U.S. forces in Syria.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Conspicuously restrained in its response to Israel’s recent bombardment of Iranian and allied military positions and facilities in Syria, Iran attacked a U.S. military base March 23. The drone attack, which claimed the life of a U.S. contractor and wounded five U.S. service members and one U.S. contractor, led U.S. Central Command to conduct precision airstrikes against facilities used by militias affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran responded by targeting a U.S. base in Deir el-Zour March 24. Commenting on the incidents during a March 24 press conference, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said: “Make no mistake: The United States does not … seek conflict with Iran, but be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people.” In return, a spokesperson for Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accused the United States of fabricating pretexts to attack Iranian military bases in Syria. The spokesperson warned that Iran would “retaliate without the slightest hesitation.” It appears the United States is entangled in the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel: Fearing disproportionate Israeli responses, and assuming Washington instead will respond rationally, Tehran is targeting U.S. bases in Syria. In doing so, however, Iran not only fails to deter Israel but may also provoke escalation with the United States. 

  • March 25: Commenting on the spiral of retaliatory attacks between the United States and Iranian proxies, Nour News quoted the Supreme National Security Council spokesperson, Keyvan Khosravi, as having said: “Illegal occupation of parts of Syrian territory entails consequences for the armed forces of this country,” referencing the United States, “which is now making false accusations against Iran … By fabricating crises and lying, Washington is trying to attribute natural opposition to its occupation” of Syria “to other countries … Iran has paid a great price to counter terrorism and establish lasting security in Syria, and it opposes any action that threatens the stability of this country … Should the United States use any pretext to attack Iranian bases in Syria, which were established in that country at the request of the Syrian government to counter terrorism and Islamic State elements, it will face retaliation without the slightest hesitation.”   

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme

Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds Day rally in Tehran, Iran, May 31, 2019. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)
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Events

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
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