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Analysis

Fararu News’ Catalogue of What Went Wrong in Iran

The October 7 edition of the Iran Media Review considers the painful measures the Iranian regime must take to regain public trust.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

As countrywide protests over the suspicious death of Mahsa Amini in police custody approach three weeks, Fararu News raised the question: “Why did protests take form and turn violent, and what is the path out of the crisis?” Interviewed by Fararu, Ali Shakouri-Rad, a physician and reformist politician, not only recognized the symptoms but also diagnosed the root causes of the protests. The Islamic Republic, however, needs to muster the courage to swallow his bitter prescription. President Ebrahim Raisi’s vague mention of reconsidering policies is not nearly enough to persuade protesters to leave the streets. 

  • October 4: In his interview with Fararu, Shakouri-Rad emphasized five factors that made the death of Amini a transformative event: She was young, Kurdish, Sunni, female, and from the provinces. Answering why the protests turned violent, Shakouri-Rad emphasized the significance of the “lack of legal avenues for expressing legitimate protests.” He also said, “existing cleavages and divides in society and even among parts of the ruling elites have become wider as a result of recent protests, which in turn significantly reduces the efficacy of the political system and decision making.” Turning to solutions, Shakouri-Rad urged the government to “unilaterally take action to increase public trust.” 
  • October 4: According to Khabar Online, addressing the Expediency Council Raisi said: “Monitoring implementation of policies is of outmost importance. The leader of the revolution emphasizes that monitoring must take place, and if needed, policies must be reconsidered so that the policies are implemented at all levels in the country.” 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)
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Events

Mar 2, 2026

12:00pm - 1:00pm

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI will host a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Register
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
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