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Analysis

Official Government Poll: 72.9% of Iranians Favor Separation of Religion and State

The February 27 edition of the Iran Media Review highlights a leaked poll showing dramatic changes in Iranians’ opinions on the role of religion in public life.

Ali Alfoneh

2 min read

Forty-five years after the revolution in Iran and establishment of the Islamic Republic, 10% of Iranians declare themselves “nonreligious” and 24.1% “moderately religious”; 47% of Iranians do not follow a Shia source of emulation; 45% are either “totally opposed” or “opposed” to the mandatory hijab; and 72.9% of Iranians favor the separation of religion and state. Those are some of the results of a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance poll that was recently leaked to BBC Persian. While other polls in Arab states have detected a gradual rise in the number of people declaring themselves not religious, the recent polling from Iran is a manifestation of the Islamic Republic’s palpably declining ability to shape society according to its ideology.

  • February 20: While “The Fourth Wave of the National Polling of Values and Views of Iranians” remains classified, BBC Persian released chapter eight of the book, “Religious Views and Practices”:
    • In response to the statement, “All women must wear the hijab,” 10.8% of respondents declared themselves “totally opposed” and 34.4% stated they were “opposed,” while 13% declared themselves “neither in favor nor opposed.” Moreover, 33% “agreed” and 7.9% “completely agreed” with the statement.
    • Answering the question, “How do you deal with women without the hijab?” 38% of respondents stated they don’t have any problem with it, while 46% stated they are opposed to it but do not interfere with women not wearing the hijab. Additionally, 61.9% “totally agreed” or “agreed” that “the employment of individuals at government offices should not be based on their religious beliefs.” In the 2015 poll, only 42.6% of the respondents believed that government employment should not be based on the religious beliefs of job applicants.
    • According to the leaked poll, 47% of respondents said they do not follow a religious leader or source of emulation in religious affairs.
    • Notably, 72.9% of the respondents agreed with the statement, “Religion must be separated from the state.” By comparison, in the 2015 poll, only 30.7% of respondents were either in agreement or total agreement with the separation between religion and state.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

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In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)
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Events

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
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