Khamenei’s Admonishments: Sermons, Not Strategy

There was a time when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assured Iranians there would be “neither negotiation nor war.” Yet he later acquiesced to talks with the United States, and Iran ultimately endured 12 days of war with Israel. After, Khamenei warned the Cabinet of a different danger: the limbo in which Iran now finds itself, neither at war nor at peace. But he offered no clear path out. His recommendations increasingly resemble a sermon rather than actionable policy, a reflection of the fundamental reality that the government lacks the resources to put his correctives into practice. 

• September 7: In an address given to President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Cabinet, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for improving the public’s livelihood and cautioned against the peril of the current moment. A transcript was posted on his website:  

• • “Let us overcome the spirit of ‘neither war, nor peace’ that the enemy seeks to impose on us with a spirit of work and effort. One of the harms and dangers facing the country is precisely this state of ‘neither war, nor peace,’ which is not good, not a healthy atmosphere. By speaking, by acting, by showing results, let us make the spirit of work, the spirit of effort, determination, and motivation prevail over this condition.” 

• • Addressing political priorities, Khamenei said:  

• • • “The first issue is the revival of production lines. Those who are knowledgeable in this field and understand the realities of the economy – the practical economy – are all unanimous that production is the key to the country’s economic progress. Focus on production; revive the production lines. Of course, it was mentioned that electricity is being cut off at some factories. In certain places, there are emergencies, but where there is no such emergency, the issue of production must be taken seriously.” 

• • • “The availability of essential goods in the country must be completely reassuring. If essential goods are available in the country in a timely manner, this will have a direct effect on people’s livelihoods; in other words, arbitrary and artificial price hikes in the market will no longer occur, and food security will not be threatened. This is an important matter.” 

• • • “The issue of people’s livelihoods is one of the most important matters in the country. As the president has also mentioned, arrangements must be made so that people can obtain a number of essential goods – about 10 items, or perhaps a little fewer – without worrying about rising prices. In other words, it should not be the case that something costs one amount today, and then tomorrow, due to inflation, the price doubles.” 

• • • “It is also appropriate to mention that storing gas for the winter is among the important issues. From now, through gas imports and similar measures, steps should be taken to ensure that the country does not face gas shortages in the winter. At present, there is Turkmenistan and other places from which such arrangements can be made.” 

• • • “Housing is also one of the important issues; in fact, the issue of housing is truly one of the fundamental problems.” 

• • • “Our methods of oil production are outdated; the equipment is old, the techniques are old, and we are lagging behind many other oil-producing regions of the world … Regarding oil exports, of course, we need greater dynamism. The issue of having multiple customers and diversifying the clientele for our oil is an important matter that must, God willing, be pursued.” 

• • • “Those who write for newspapers, compose articles, speak on radio and television, or make statements in cyberspace should strive not to speak to the detriment of their country nor become narrators of their nation’s weaknesses. Instead, they should present to the people the strengths that truly exist, the capacities that genuinely exist – these should be conveyed to the public.” 

• September 9: Nour News Agency, the Supreme National Security Council’s mouthpiece, interpreted Khamenei’s approach in terms as abstract as the leader’s own statements: 

• • According to Nour News, there are, for the time being, five schools of thought in Iran each recommending their own prescription as to how Iran can escape the “neither war, nor peace” trap: “1. Proponents of negotiations with the United States, who believe the United States is the village chieftain … 2. Those who suggest Iran abandon its instruments of national power (missiles, nuclear and the ‘axis of resistance’) to avoid conflict with the West … 3. Those, who, assuming the regime has a legitimacy crisis, insist on a referendum to ‘return to the people’ … 4. Those who prescribe a rebellion against international norms by blocking the Strait of Hormuz or leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty … 5. Those arguing for the need for a paradigm shift, without explaining what it means.” 

• • Khamenei, on the other hand, Nour News explained, is calling for a different approach: “A. Prioritize the livelihood and employment of the people, and society will move out of a state of passive expectation … B. Increase social capital. Building social consensus around the issue of livelihood can reduce political divides. C. Strengthen soft deterrence … D. Manage external risks. By relying on domestic capabilities, dependence on external decisions (whether negotiation or tension) will be reduced.” 

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