Iranian-Saudi Negotiations: Diplomatic Enthusiasm, Analytical Skepticism

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Ebrahim Azizi, parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee vice chairman, have expressed optimism concerning diplomatic negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Iraq. However, Iranian analysts have warned about the risks of a return of the Republican Party to power in the United States and Saudi Arabia not living up to its “commitments” as factors that could derail the negotiations. What Iran’s state-censored media fails to mention is what the Iranian leadership most probably committed itself to in the course of the previous round of negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s failure to live up to these commitments would just as likely cause the collapse of the diplomatic process between the two countries. 

• August 30: Raisi, receiving the Iraqi foreign minister, called five rounds of Iranian-Saudi negotiations “beneficial” and emphasized that the enactment of previous agreements “paves the path of elevating the level of engagement,” Razavi News reported. 
• August 31: Hamshahri reported a phone conversation between the Iraqi and Saudi foreign ministers concerning a future round of negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. 
• September 6: Defa Press quoted Azizi, who expressed hope for improvement of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and concluded: “Elevating the level of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia prevents foreign intervention in the region.” 
• August 31: Hassan Hanizadeh, an international affairs expert, in conversation with Iranian Labour News Agency said Saudi Arabia has an “uneasy” relationship with the United States and wants to reduce tensions with Iran. “Everybody is awaiting the calm to be restored in Iraq, and it is possible that the negotiations will resume.” Answering a question regarding what demands Raisi has for Saudi Arabia as a precondition for restoring diplomatic relations between the two countries, Hanizadeh said: “Saudi Arabia has committed itself to abstain from sectarian Shia-Sunni activities. Another commitment of Saudi Arabia concerns relations of Persian Gulf states with the Zionist regime … Saudi Arabia has committed itself not to allow this country to become a den of conspiracy against Iran.” Despite a generally positive outlook concerning Iranian-Saudi relations, Hanizadeh warned: “Should the Republicans return to power, it is possible that Saudi Arabia restarts its destructive activities.” 
• September 6: Jafar Qanadbashi, an international affairs expert, commenting on negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, said in a conversation with Iran’s Metropolises News Agency: “In recent years, despite Iran’s desire for detente, the Saudis engaged in hostile acts against us … such as assistance to the hypocrites,” referring to the Mujahedeen-e Khalq organization, and by “establishing a Persian-language television,” a reference to the London-based Iran International TV, “which has become a platform for weakening the Iranian regime.” Qanadbashi also accused Saudi Arabia of “assisting groups, which under the banner of ethnonationalism, desire secession from Iran. Without any doubt, the most important uncalculated act of Saudi Arabia against Iran was aiding the United States in sanctioning Iran’s oil, realizing Trump’s promise of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero. Saudi Arabia pledged to compensate for the loss of Iran’s oil in the global market.” Turning to Iran’s willingness to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, Qanadbashi said it is “below zero,” and depends on Saudi Arabia stopping “hostile acts against Iran,” such as “cooperation with the banks enacting economic sanctions against Iran … encouraging Sudan and Djibouti to sever relations with Iran, bombing the Iranian Embassy in Yemen, and the like.” 

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