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Analysis

For Now, Iran and Hezbollah Court Trouble but Avoid It

The October 27 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iran’s delicate balancing act amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Unofficial and official mouthpieces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council have joined forces in a difficult task. They are attempting to build a heroic public image of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and declare Iran the center of resistance to Israel but also free Nasrallah of the obligation to take part in the Israel-Hamas conflict and dismiss Iranian involvement in Hamas’ October 7 attack against Israel. Iran and Hezbollah are courting trouble but have so far avoided it, though it is unclear how long this will last.

  • October 25: IRGC mouthpiece Mashregh News reported that Nasrallah received Ziad Nakhale, the secretary general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political wing. In their October 25 meeting, they reportedly “considered the northern front and ongoing fights in the border area between Lebanon and the occupied land,” referencing Israel. The three men also allegedly exchanged views on “means to achieve a true victory of the resistance in the Gaza Strip and Palestine and how to stop the aggression of the Zionist regime in these areas.” Nasrallah reportedly said that Palestinians killed by the Israel Defense Forces since October 7 should be remembered as “martyrs of the path to Quds,” or Jerusalem.
  • October 25: Nour News, the official mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, assigning great significance to Nasrallah’s unexceptional statement concerning the “martyrs,” wrote: “First, Western media and statesmen have tried to create divisions among members of the resistance … this ideological and strategic sentence by the seyyed of the resistance,” referencing Nasrallah, “has foiled the Hebrew-Arab objective … Second, Hassan Fazl-Allah,” a Lebanese parliamentarian “from the resistance front, has said that Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is monitoring the battles and is well aware of all scenarios and possibilities, including operational and security matters. This sentence by the seyyed of the resistance cannot be unrelated to his intelligence superiority concerning current affairs … Third, the Gaza war has morphed the resistance front into a resistance system … Beyond joint operations, we are witnessing increased cooperation among resistance currents around a shared central strategic and tactical center … Fourth, the naming of the martyrs paves the path to Quds and conveys the message to the Zionists and their backers that the resistance will never forget its objective.”
  • October 25: In a separate story, Nour News dismissed The Wall Street Journal’s October 25 article “Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Before Oct. 7 Attacks.” Nour News wrote: “Releasing such news serves the purpose of deflecting attention from the irrecoverable defeat the Zionists suffered in the Al-Aqsa Deluge operation,” Hamas’ name for its October 7 attack. “The Palestinian resistance is a mature, independent, and popular current, and it has proved its natural and developing capabilities throughout years of struggle against Zionist criminals.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)

Protests in Iran: Regime Deal With Trump or Degrade Toward Collapse?

Though the Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure from protesters and armed insurgent groups, it is not yet doomed – but without a deal with the United States, the regime is likely headed for a slow collapse.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP, File)
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Events

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Jun 23, 2025

U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 23, AGSI hosted a discussion on the United States' attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks from the East Room of the White House in Washington, June 21, after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites, as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen. (Carlos Barria/Pool via AP)
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