Permanence of Neither War Nor Peace?

As Iranian delegations flock to Doha, Qatar – one of several mediators between Tehran and Washington – there is cautious optimism about the prospects for peace in Iranian media. Yet recent U.S. strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy facilities near Bandar Abbas, along with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s renewed pledge that Israel will cease to exist by 2040, illustrate the fragility of the cease-fire. As Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece Nour News Agency suggests, Iran may indeed be entering a state of neither war nor peace, but such insecurity is unlikely to remain confined to Iran alone and will affect the entire region.

• May 25: Centrist Asr-e Iran reported that Abdolnasser Hemmati, governor of the central bank of Iran, visited Qatar to release frozen Iranian assets.
• May 25: According to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also visited Qatar.
• May 25: Tabnak News Agency, which is affiliated with Major General Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, confirmed foreign reports that Qatar is playing a mediating role between the United States and Iran.
• May 26: Khamenei’s message to pilgrims was released by Islamic Republic News Agency:
  • “The clock can’t be turned backward, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases. The United States, in addition to no longer having a safe haven for mischief and the stationing of military bases in the region, is moving further away from its former condition with each passing day. The unstable Zionist regime, that cancerous tumor, is likewise approaching the final stages of its accursed life, and by the grace of God, and in accordance with the firm and farsighted statement made 10 years ago by the great martyred leader – may God sanctify his pure soul – it will not see 25 years from that date, God willing.”
• May 26: Nour News Agency published commentary on the Iranian official visits to Qatar:
  • “One of the plausible scenarios, should the parties move beyond the stage of an initial understanding and enter negotiations, is the emergence of a state of ‘neither war nor peace’ – a condition of suspended insecurity that may prove to be the most undesirable outcome for Iran and the region. Under such circumstances, there would be neither a clear horizon for a final agreement nor the possibility of returning to lasting stability. Economic investments, regional projects, energy markets, and even trade routes would all operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty. The experience of recent years has shown that the economies of the Persian Gulf region, contrary to common assumptions, are not immune even to limited and temporary insecurity and that any disruption in security calculations can extend far beyond the borders of a single country.”
  • “The Iranian delegation’s visit to Doha, coinciding with efforts to formulate a negotiating framework, is not merely an ordinary diplomatic move but part of the process of shaping a new security order in the Persian Gulf – an order whose success or failure will largely depend on whether regional and extraregional actors have absorbed the message of the 40-day war or whether they will continue to insist on their previous calculations. What has become clear so far is that Iran has demonstrated that it possesses both the necessary tools to pursue this strategy and the political and security will required to consolidate it.”
• May 26: Fatemeh Jarareh, a parliamentarian representing Bandar Abbas, was quoted by Tabnak News Agency:
  • “Last night, the United States attacked some fast boats,” of the IRGC navy.
  • “Four Iranian servicemen were martyred, but there is still no accurate information available … The cease-fire has been breached.”

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