War Abroad, Civil War at Home?

Amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Iran is attempting to project an image of stability, emphasizing the orderly election of a new leader by the Assembly of Experts. At the same time, the regime appears to be advancing two parallel narratives. On the diplomatic front, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and his deputy, Ali Bagheri Kani, publicly dismissed the prospect of Iranian outreach to the United States – denials that may, in fact, suggest that backchannel contact is underway. On the military front, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has claimed to have “closed” the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, signaling escalation and deterrence. Meanwhile, Iranian media outlets are increasingly reporting Israeli strikes targeting border guard facilities, police stations, and both IRGC and regular army bases along the Iraqi frontier. These strikes may indicate preparations for a broader strategy, potentially setting the stage for infiltration into Iran by armed opposition groups operating from Iraq.

• March 1: On Telegram, centrist Mehr News Agency posted President Masoud Pezeshkian’s condolences for the February 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• March 2: Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei was quoted on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mouthpiece Mashregh News’ Telegram channel:
  • “After the martyrdom of the supreme leader of the revolution, a temporary Leadership Council was immediately formed in accordance with Article 111 of the Constitution … Without a moment’s delay, the duties related to the council are being carried out.”
• March 2: Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani was quoted by Tasnim News Agency asserting:
  • “Iran will not engage in any kind of negotiations with America.”
• March 2: Larijani’s deputy, Ali Bagheri Kani, was also quoted by Tasnim News Agency saying:
  • “The enemy’s intention with negotiations is Iran’s capitulation.”
• March 2: SNSC mouthpiece Nour News Agency released footage of a funeral service for 22 soldiers killed in an Israeli bombardment of the border guard command center in Mehran, Ilam province.
• March 3, 2026: Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, advisor to the IRGC chief commander, told Tasnim News Agency:
  • “The Strait of Hormuz is closed.”

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