Nuclear Negotiations Under the Shadow of the Ukraine War

Iranian authorities consistently dismiss accusations from the United States that Tehran is providing Russia with close-range ballistic missiles. Iranian political activists and analysts, however, debate the merits of Iran’s military cooperation with Russia. Remarkably, critics and proponents of Iran’s close ties with Russia agree that the two countries are tactical, and not strategic, allies. This, in turn, raises questions regarding the price Iran pays for maintaining the tactical cooperation with Russia: Is it worth European threats of activating snapback sanctions against Iran or raising the topic of Iran’s nuclear program at the United Nations Security Council? 

• September 15: Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former parlimentartian, warned against the “price” Iran is paying for its relations with Russia, as quoted by reformist Etemad newspaper:
  • “The Russians declare Iran is their ally in the war in Ukraine, but this war has not had any benefit to our country … The Europeans, who abstained from using the snapback mechanism against Iran, are now trying to activate it because of the cooperation between Iran and Russia … The Russians will benefit from snapback sanctions against Iran, which will make Iran dependent on Russia. Iran will particularly need Russia’s support if Iran’s case is raised at the United Nations Security Council.”  
  • Turning to U.S.-Iranian relations, Falahatpisheh said: “The United States appears to be interested in reducing tensions with Iran … and I hope President Masoud Pezeshkian can take advantage of the circumstances and reduce tensions with the United States.” 
  • Falahatpisheh also emphasized Iran’s relations with Russia are “tactical and not strategic,” which explains positions taken by Russia that run contrary to Iran’s positions.  
• September 15: Russia expert Shuaib Bahman said in an interview with Etemad:  
  • “The Europeans … are trying to corner Iran and persuade it to restrict its nuclear activities, live up to its commitments as they were prior to the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and not enter the next level of nuclear advances. A new Cabinet has been formed in Iran, and they believe they ought to pressure it in the hope of influencing Iran’s foreign policy … It is therefore conceivable that the Europeans will raise the issue at the Board of Governors” of the International Atomic Energy Agency, “or even at the next session of the Security Council.”  
  • Commenting on Iran’s alleged exportation of ballistic missiles to Russia, Bahman said: “There is high level cooperation between Iran and Russia, including in the military field. There is no new cooperation. The existing cooperation between the two countries predates the war in Ukraine. The Westerners, however, are trying to use” reports on alleged missile exports to Russia, “as a pressure point against both countries. This, however, is not likely to decrease the level of cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.” 
  • Asked about the “price” Iran is paying for its relations with Russia, Bahman said: “The sanctions have always been there … If we sever relations with Russia or China today, none of the existing sanctions will be removed. The sanctions are just pretexts and pressure points used by the West against Iran.” 
  • Bahman concluded that Iran and Russia are not strategic allies but have shared interests.  

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