Iran’s Mixed Messages on Retaliation Against Israel

Amid a growing number of reports of an imminent retaliatory Iranian attack on Israel or Israeli interests, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking with his Western counterparts, expressed disappointment in the failure of the United Nations Security Council to condemn Israel’s April 1 attack on the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. Amir-Abdollahian’s statements appear slightly at odds with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s public promise of retaliation, as they suggest Tehran could be satisfied by a U.N. Security Council condemnation of Israel’s attack. The differences in the statements from Khamenei and Amir-Abdollahian may reflect a division of labor between the two: While Khamenei speaks of revenge to satisfy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intimidate the Israeli public, Amir-Abdollahian may be trying to extract concessions from the West by raising the prospect of the Gaza war expanding.

• April 9: Under the headline “Just Wait a Bit,” Kayhan newspaper, which is at times perceived as Khamenei’s mouthpiece, wrote in an editorial: “There are those who oppose avenging the commanders and military advisors by referring to economic consequences or the risk of war … But there are also those who demanded the immediate targeting of Tel Aviv, Haifa, and nuclear and military sites of the enemy and were not concerned about the consequences of such attacks … We must avenge the killing … but it must be a surprise, and it must deter the enemy, meaning a calculated revenge … News has reached us that over the past week, certain people have been engaged in meticulous research into ways of avenging our losses, and let us reveal so much that the revenge is certain and, God willing, will deter the enemy. Just wait a bit!”
• April 10: According to the Office for the Preservation and Publication of the Works of His Holiness Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, Khamenei referenced Israel, saying: “The evil regime, which is wicked from top to toe, has added one more mistake to its miscalculations, which is the attack against the Iranian Consulate in Syria. Consulates and embassies of countries represent the sovereign soil of states, and when they attack our consulate, it is like them attacking our soil. This is the international standard. The evil regime misjudged in this case. It must be punished, and punished it will be.”
• April 12: Amir-Abdollahian, describing his consultations with his British, German, and Australian counterparts, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter: “Iran is not interested in expanding the war, but lasting security in the sensitive West Asian region is conditioned on the containment of the warmongering and unbalanced leaders of the Zionist regime and ending the war crimes of this regime against Gaza and the West Bank.”
• April 12: According to centrist Farda News, Amir-Abdollahian asserted to his foreign counterparts regarding the failure of the U.N. Security Council to condemn Israel’s attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus: “When the Security Council is not capable of issuing a statement, legitimate defense is a necessity.”

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