Iranian Oil Officials Optimistic About the United States, Concerned About the Russian Rival

Iranian oil officials have generally confirmed Western media reports on improved U.S.-Iranian relations, which have allegedly led to the United States easing the enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. However, they have also expressed concern about Russia, which is trying to wrest away oil export markets from Iran, and China, which is taking maximum economic advantage of the sanctions regime against Iranian and Russian oil exports.

• August 27: In an interview with reformist Shargh Daily, Iranian officials involved in oil exports generally confirmed the details of the August 25 Bloomberg report “For Global Oil Markets, a U.S.-Iran Deal Is Already Happening”:
  • Hamid Reza Salehi, the deputy head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, said: “I believe the Bloomberg analysis is correct, and I hope this trend will result in greater oil revenue, which can be used for the development of the country’s fundamental infrastructure. Allowing oil sales is one of the signs of an agreement. Around the same time, the funds in South Korea were released. I hope this trend accelerates.”
  • Hamid Hosseini, the head of the Association of Petroleum Products Exporters, said: “Market indicators testify to reduced tensions in Iran-U.S. relations, and there is no zeal when dealing with Iran’s crude oil exports. This is why the exports are increasing. At the same time, it has been announced that Iran is reducing its levels of uranium enrichment below 60% in order to alleviate the concerns of the West. There is also the exchange of prisoners, and,” Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, “said ‘Iranian assets that remain frozen in other countries will be released due to the agreement with the United States.’ All these things are signs of a softening in the foreign policy of the state. Separately, increased Iranian oil exports also align with American interests.” According to Hosseini, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is interested in stabilizing oil prices ahead of the November 2024 presidential election, and increased Iranian oil exports are expected to compensate for reduced Saudi and Russian oil production. “The experts were expecting $90 per barrel of oil, but the price has been reduced to $83.” Hosseini also referred to President Ebrahim Raisi’s comments on the Financial Action Task Force, a global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, noting that before Raisi’s July visit to Africa, “he did say that the benefits of joining the FATF outweigh its harms and that it is better to discuss it anew at the Expediency Council.” He continued that, once Raisi’s comment about the FATF “was released, it was not dismissed, and some people involved in producing a report on the subject for the Expediency Council confirmed the statements. Therefore, it is possible that we will soon witness a cease-fire in relations with the United States and the Guardian Council will assess the FATF anew with an eye toward joining it.”
  • Mohsen Qomsari, the former international affairs director at the National Iranian Oil Company, struck a more pessimistic note in his comments: “For the time being, increasing Iran’s oil exports depends on the demands of the Chinese market. Other countries don’t dare to purchase Iran’s oil due to the sanctions and because of their economic relations with the United States. Iran reaching 3.4 million barrels per day is good, but, unfortunately, our only market is China. Decreased Saudi oil production is not big enough to provide us with an opportunity … Separately, decreased Saudi oil exports to China are due to seasonal changes … The rivalry between Iran’s and Russia’s oil exports is likely to harden due to continued sanctions” against both countries. “China takes advantage of sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil exports and purchases our oil at discounted rates … Whether we want it or not, Russia perceives us as its rival, and Russia’s performance in the past decade illustrates that Russia has replaced Iranian oil wherever possible. Therefore, our competition with Russia in the Chinese market continues, and since the Russians have stronger political ties with the Chinese, they take advantage of the present circumstances … The Russians are not going away so that we can have a space in China.”

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