Big Deal or Not? Opposing Assessments of Economic Impact of the Nuclear Deal

As negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran appear to be close to a conclusion, Iranian media disagree on the economic impact of a deal. Opinions range from a deep concern about the plight of the Iranian public under the weight of the sanctions regime and optimistic assessment of a post nuclear deal economy to a more cautious assessment emphasizing long-term obstacles to attract foreign direct investments to Kayhan’s hard-line recommendation to the government to disregard the nuclear negotiations and focus on neutralizing the U.S.-imposed sanctions regime.  

• August 20: In its latest report, the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture concluded that “Iran’s economic growth is tightly tied with the sanctions. Should there be an external relaxation of the sanctions, it is possible to stimulate growth through oil and gas exports … Foreign trade too can reach the pre-sanctions regime level and secure access to foreign currency.” 
• August 20: Political Analyst Nasser Imani dampened expectations concerning a return to the JCPOA in an interview with Farda News. “Large foreign companies cannot predict future behavior of the Americans and may not be inclined to invest in Iran … so, we must be careful when it comes to foreign direct investments.” Turning to the potential impact on purchasing power, he continued: “In the first months, the prices will fall due to removal of the sanctions, since products currently reaching the market are priced 10% above the international market level price … but fundamentally, 80% or our economic problems are due to domestic issues. For example, our problem with excess liquidity is not due to the sanctions. Should there be foreign direct investments, their impact will not be palpable for five to 10 years.” 
• August 21: In a slightly more optimistic assessment, reformist Entekhab News wrote: “Following the shock of revaluation of the rial, the nuclear agreement may lead to quiet and gradual rise in the stock market, provided that the interest rate is cut and the government abstains from engaging in price control.” 
• August 23: On the same line, the economist Majid-Reza Hariri, in an interview with Farda News, expressed optimism concerning revaluation of the rial if the nuclear deal is revived: “In order to reduce the budget deficit … the government will pump the oil revenue into the market … which means the foreign currency will decline against the rial until the market reaches a balance.” 
• August 28: Heshmat-Allah Falahat Pishe, a former parliamentarian, in an interview with Shargh, expressed a more combative optimism: “Some officials have a state of mind very different than the people and have no comprehension of the pressure the people are subjected to. We are witnessing unprecedented devaluation of the official currency, and the ‘resistance economy’ and the pressure from the sanctions regime weigh on the shoulders of the people. Therefore, should the JCPOA be revived, it will prepare the ground for an economic leap forward and reduce the pressure on the public … I disagree with those who claim revival of the JCPOA will not have an impact.”  
• August 28: An editorial published by the hard-line newspaper Kayhan praised the economic policies of President Ebrahim Raisi, stating: “Sanction removal through negotiations is a bait that Americans have placed next to their hook.” It urged Raisi to “ignore it by relying on the public and use all his energy neutralizing the sanctions.” 

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