"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Retaliation: Lessons From Greek-Iranian Naval Incidents

In the inaugural, July 6 edition of the Iran Media Review, Ali Alfoneh considers the Islamic Republic of Iran’s logic of power and disproportionate retaliation.

Ali Alfoneh

3 min read

Two and half millennia since the Battle of Salamis, Iran and Greece once again found themselves entangled in naval incidents, from which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has learned the inefficient lesson of responding in kind. On April 15, Greece’s coast guard seized Lana, a Russian flagged and operated crude oil tanker in the Aegean Sea, citing violations of international sanctions imposed against Russia. At the time, Greek authorities emphasized the seizure order concerned the ship itself and not its cargo. However, by May 26, following a “judicial intervention by U.S. authorities concerning the ship’s cargo,” crude oil was confiscated by the U.S. government as a part of U.S. sanctions against Iran. The IRGC retaliated on May 27 by seizing two Greek oil tankers off the coast of Iran. And, on June 9, Ahmed Naderi, Iran’s ambassador to Athens, tweeted that a Greek court of appeals had overturned the Greeks’ original seizure of the oil, and the Associated Press confirmed the story.

  • June 14: Mohammad-Javan Akhavan, Javan newspaper executive director, in an overview of the affair wrote in an editorial: “As predicted, when the Islamic Republic of Iran retaliated beyond proportion, the logic of power cleared the path of release of the property of the Iranian nation unjustly looted in Greece … It appears such retaliation, which at times punitively exceeds the enemy’s initial act, has to some extent proved its efficacy and can impact international and regional power equations.” Addressing the West, he concluded: “Take a look at the oil market: If we are not allowed to sell oil, you may not be able to purchase oil from your regional vassals.”

Javan often serves as the mouthpiece of the IRGC, so the editorial should be taken seriously as reflecting the dominant view among the IRGC leadership. But while the logic of retaliation as deterrence may be valid, there is also an alternative lesson that the IRGC leadership ought to have learned from the affair: the logic of a rational resolution of the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program, which caused the U.S. sanctions regime against Iran in the first place.

AGSIW’s Iran Media Review monitors, translates, and reviews critical Persian-language media sources identifying important developments and trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme

Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Ali Alfoneh

6 min read

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, attends the annual Quds Day rally in Tehran, Iran, May 31, 2019. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ali Alfoneh

15 min read

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, February 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival

Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for years to come.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, February 28. (AP Photo)

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective

The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger renewed anti-regime mobilization.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8. (UGC via AP)
View All

Events

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)

Jan 8, 2026

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a meeting with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states as part of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, September 24. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, Pool)

Sep 16, 2025

Book Talk: Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

On September 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the roots of Iran's strategic outlook.

Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Women carry Iranian flags under the Azadi (freedom) monument tower during a rally commemorating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 10. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
View All