Maduro’s Stratagem, Khamenei’s Salvation?

“How did the Venezuelan president manage to solve the crisis in his country through dialogue with the domestic opposition and restoration of relations with Washington?” Mohammad-Hossein Lotf-Allahi, a columnist, asked in the January 3 edition of the reformist Etemad newspaper. The question, however, appears rhetorical: More than an analysis of the crisis in Venezuela, the article appears like advice on how Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can solve the political crisis in Iran. 

• January 3: “Relations between the United States and Venezuela are moving toward a new direction following years of tensions. Impacted by the war in Ukraine, the Joe Biden administration, in an attempt to control the energy prices … has temporarily suspended some oil sanctions against Caracas, and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro says he is interested in normalizing relations with the United States … These statements came three days after the Venezuelan opposition’s Parliament decided to dissolve Juan Guaidó’s interim government … which paves the path for normalization of relations between the United States and allies and Caracas.” Praising the Venezuelan president’s “wit,” the columnist continued: “Nicolás Maduro was well aware of the role of the domestic opposition in external pressure and engaged in serious negotiations with it, which reached a preliminary understanding in November 2022 … They negotiated the release of billions of dollars worth of Venezuelan government assets abroad to be used for humanitarian purposes, under United Nations supervision, in Venezuela.” Lotf-Allahi also commented on Maduro’s ability to play Moscow and Washington against each other, to extract concessions from both, and ended the article quoting a report published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “The Venezuelan opposition is not capable of posing a serious challenge to Maduro, and he may even win a relatively free election in 2024.” 

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