Natural gas will play a critical role in driving economic expansion and diversification for the Gulf Arab states in coming decades. Yet, despite the enormous resources of natural gas, almost all countries in the region, with the exception of Qatar, will struggle to meet growing supply needs. Straining supplies further, gas is being prioritized for use in electricity generation in an effort to divert more valuable crude oil to export markets to maximize revenue, a critical priority in the major producing countries.
The Gulf Arab states are casting a wide net in their pursuit of gas-supply security, with increased use of renewable sources also a central policy initiative. State energy companies are sharpening their focus on developing domestic natural gas production, but some countries are having more success than others developing these technically challenging reserves. As a result, rapidly expanding demand is forecast to outpace planned production increases for the major gas consuming countries in the region.
In an effort to mitigate supply deficits, a number of countries will increasingly turn to imports of liquefied natural gas or embark on joint ventures to acquire gas assets outside their borders. Indeed, the pursuit of natural gas security will dominate the energy landscape of the Gulf Arab states through the next decade.
Trump’s visit to the UAE, centered on artificial intelligence, investment, and defense, will not only highlight the scale of Emirati aspirations but also reveal the complex interplay of state, business, and family networks now shaping the U.S.-UAE relationship.
OPEC+ producers are increasing output in the face of a global economic downtown. This will be a major test for non-OPEC producers, but OPEC+ seems confident that time is on its side.
Saudi Arabia has continued to make progress in diversifying its economy, although lower oil revenue, higher imports, and stronger remittance outflows pushed the current account into a small deficit in 2024.
A substantial drawdown on global oil stocks is forecast for the fourth quarter amid record oil demand, accelerating the rise in oil prices to the $100 per barrel threshold.
Saudi Arabia extends steep “voluntary” production cut through August but a weaker-than-expected Chinese economic recovery weighs heavily on market sentiment.
OPEC+ supply cuts starting in May could aggravate an expected oil supply deficit in the second half of 2023 at a period of greater economic uncertainty.
