"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our Privacy Policy

Subscription Settings
Analysis

Iran: From Defense to Offense

The March 31 edition of the Iran Media Review analyzes Iranian reports that Iran is about to enter an “offensive phase” as well as warnings against a U.S. ground invasion.

Ali Alfoneh

4 min read

Tabnak News Agency, a mouthpiece of Major General Mohsen Rezaei, a senior military advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, claimed Iran is about to enter an “offensive phase” in the war. At the same time, Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece Nour News warned the United States of the perils of a ground operation against Iran.

  • March 31: According to Tabnak News Agency, Iran has so far been able to repel direct threats from Israel and the United States by “equipping its defense systems, including missile and air defense systems, and has established security at its borders and critical centers” and is about to start an “offensive phase”:
    • “Moving toward offense means designing operations that not only respond to threats but also deter the enemy from taking military action. This approach includes identifying predetermined enemy targets, sensitive logistical points, and command centers and taking preemptive action against them. In this way, Iran can relieve pressure from its borders and take the initiative.”
    • “A successful offensive is impossible without accurate and up-to-date intelligence. Identifying enemy bases, equipment transfer routes, communication networks, and vulnerable points constitutes the backbone of any offensive operation. By utilizing domestic intelligence capabilities and regional networks, Iran can deliver targeted, low-cost, yet effective, strikes without leading to a broader crisis.”
    • “The move toward offense should not be purely military. Coordination with regional actors and the use of diplomatic tools, economic pressure, and media influence can multiply the impact of military offense. In other words, a smart offensive is a combination of combat capability and indirect tools to create sustainable deterrence.”
    • “Entering an offensive phase sends a clear message to the enemy: Iran will not just defend itself but also has the capability and readiness to deliver a targeted counterstrike.”
  • March 31: Supreme National Security Council mouthpiece Nour News Agency wrote on the perils of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran:
    • “The scenario of a U.S. ground attack is not a sign of superiority but rather an indication of entering a stage of complexity and strategic deadlock. The combination of three main elements – namely Iran’s ground advantages, the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, and the operational capacity of the ‘axis of resistance’ – has created conditions in which any move into a ground phase becomes a costly and multilayered decision.”
    • “The regionalization of the war is not a future possibility but a reality that has been established through the expansion of the scope of conflict. Therefore, a ground war is not the end of the crisis but the beginning of a stage in which costs, actors, and consequences increase exponentially and control of the battlefield becomes significantly more difficult.”

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.

Ali Alfoneh

Senior Fellow, AGSI

Analysis

The Islamic Republic Returns to Offense

After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.

Ali Alfoneh

12 min read

Iranian Zolfaghar missiles are displayed by the armed forces in a temporary exhibition in front of the Azadi monument in Tehran, Iran, July 29. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Iran’s Collective Strategic Decision Making

Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.

Ali Alfoneh

9 min read

Iran's parliamentary speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, and foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, listen to Abolfazl Amouei, Qalibaf's international affairs assistant, during a flight to Switzerland, June 21. (Hamed Malekpour/ICANA via AP)

The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership

While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.

Ali Alfoneh

5 min read

Iranian Member of the Assembly of Experts Mohsen Qomi, Advisor to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian attend a farewell ceremony for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla in Tehran, Iran, July 3. (REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

How Did the IRGC Seize Power in Iran?

The IRGC did not seize power in a single stroke. It accumulated it – patiently, methodically – until no counterweight remained.

Ali Alfoneh

7 min read

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf looks on as members of Parliament chant in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran, Iran, February 1. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA/Handout via REUTERS)
View All

Events

Jun 16, 2026

Book Talk: Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran and the Nuclear Question

On June 16, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's nuclear program.

A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)
A view of Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)

Apr 21, 2026

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability

On April 21, AGSI hosted a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

In this photo released by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
In this photo released by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, center right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center left, are greeted by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, right, and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, left, upon their arrival at Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, April 11. (Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

Mar 18, 2026

In Its Conflict With the United States and Israel, Does Escalation Favor Iran?

On March 18, AGSI hosted a discussion on the escalation of the Iran war.

Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13,. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Firefighters try to extinguish flames at the site of a direct hit by an Iranian missile strike in Holon, central Israel, March 13. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mar 2, 2026

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition

On March 2, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 1. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via REUTERS)
View All