Iraq Tries to Avoid Entanglement in Web of Regional Conflict

“The U.S. military is taking decisive self-defense military actions to defend U.S. forces that have been attacked by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria” 23 times from October 17-30, according to an October 30 Department of Defense article. Fearing the spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the risk of Iraq being entangled in a regional war, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani visited Tehran November 6, one day after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Baghdad. While Iranian officials claim they have no influence over Iraqi militias, the United States is likely to hold Tehran responsible for the behavior of its proxies and allies.

• November 6: The website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reported on his meeting with Sudani. Khamenei reportedly said:
  • “From the very first days of the Zionist regime’s attacks, all evidence pointed at the direct intervention of the Americans in the management of the war. As more time passes, the motives behind direct U.S. intervention in guiding the crimes of the Zionist regime become clearer … Had it not been for arms transfers and political aid from the United States, the Zionist regime would not have been capable of continuing” the war. “The Americans are complicit in the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza.”
  • Turning to counteractions, Khamenei said it is necessary to increase political pressure on the United States and Israel to stop the bombardment of Gaza: “In this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq can coordinate and be impactful.”
• November 6: Reformist Shargh Daily’s survey of recent attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East included attacks by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a newly formed umbrella of militias, “against an illegal U.S. base in Tal Bidar” and a U.S. base in al-Shaddadi, both of which are in Syria’s Hasaka province. These attacks, political analyst Mojtaba Rahimi-Nia said, likely motivated Sudani’s visit to Tehran:
  • “It is clear that the visit is about the activities of armed groups in Iraq” that have targeted U.S. bases in Syria in recent weeks. Sudani is hoping to “achieve a cease-fire in Palestine and prevent the spread of the conflict and insecurity to Iraq and the Middle East region.” Shargh quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as saying, “Groups that target American forces in Syria and Iraq act independently and have not received any guidance from Tehran … They do not receive orders from us. The Americans claim these groups are related to Iran, but the reality is that the groups make their decisions on their own.” Rahimi-Nia, however, said Sudani is aware of “Tehran’s regional influence” and is interested in persuading Iran to de-escalate.

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