The small Gulf state of Qatar secures itself in two ways. First, its security is based on close relations with the United States stemming from the provision of the near-irreplaceable Al Udeid Air Base for U.S. military use. Second, diversifying this dependency, Qatar has buried itself into the energy supplies of a range of the world’s more powerful states with its provision of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Add to this a small, stable, and well-provided for set of citizens, and the Qatari state is well-secured.
But, with few external security concerns and fewer domestic ones, Qatar’s leaders overreached during the Arab Spring. In trying to support revolutions around the region, Qatar (and a range of other states) failed, sowed division, and angered regional states.
Challenges have now emerged from Qatar’s three closest neighbors that are testing its two-pronged security modus operandi. Though Qatar’s U.S. and international relations have proved to be resilient and are, thus far, supportive of Qatar, there have been deeply worrying moments. It remains to be seen how long Qatar can defy the geopolitical gravity of its region.
With an aging and largely untested fleet, U.S. mine clearing operations can restore maritime access but only under favorable political and operational conditions.
The vulnerability of the world's most important energy chokepoint has been laid bare, setting in motion changes that are likely to outlast the conflict.
When regional actors or great powers ask these days what determines the success or failure of their strategies in the region, they are increasingly discovering that developments in Syria heavily shape the outcome.
Under Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar would be known – as a mediator, a broadcaster, a host of mega sports events, and an investor – and that notoriety would itself become a form of security: deterrence by relevance.
As Gulf states pursue economic diversification and knowledge economies less dependent on resource extraction, the logic of competition may be becoming less compelling and the benefits of coordination more apparent.
