The UAE’s decision to halt trade and commercial ties with Iran reflects an exercise in applying carefully calibrated geoeconomic pressure amid an uncertain and evolving geopolitical context.
Attacks on the East-West oil pipeline and other targets in Saudi Arabia will result in a larger-than-expected economic contraction in the kingdom this year.
Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain its reputation as a reliable supplier in the months ahead will depend on how quickly it can repair damaged assets and keep several imperfect routes operating at the same time.
In tandem with President Trump’s refusal to offer help with the Houthis, the Saudis are facing grim options to reverse Houthi military successes and a chokehold over their oil exports.
