The Gaza war, with its potential for regional escalation, is just one (albeit major) concern in a region prone to instability, insecurity, and unpredictability. This paper puts the evolving crisis and nuclear proliferation concerns in the Middle East into global context, alongside other U.S. foreign and domestic policy priorities, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, competition with China, and the U.S. economy. The paper highlights how the United States and its allies have adapted and established new partnerships. Regarding the U.S. economy, the paper draws attention to how the landmark U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including $370 billion in tax credits for the renewable energy industry, could represent both an opportunity to work with developing states on rare earth materials but could also become another source of tension with China over trade policy. The paper concludes that the risks associated with instability in the multilateral political and trading system, on which great power and regional relations pivot, are as urgent to resolve as the short-term imperatives of regional crises.
As Oman pursues its Vision 2040 reform agenda, many opportunities could stem from closer economic and long-term alignment with neighbors and other major trading partners.
Gulf state economic diversification, led by the UAE, is driving a surge in relations with South America, reinforced by shared leadership outlooks, bilateral trade, and security considerations.
Drone exports and cooperation with Russia are part of a quid pro quo strategy that could provide a much-coveted boost to Iranian air defense and military hardware.
The EU’s Gulf strategic partnership strategy can best be read as a statement of intent and independence, establishing a new baseline for cooperation in the face of a series of major systemic and state challenges.
