Is the U.S.-Iran Stalemate a “New Normal” or the Prelude to Another Explosion?

After over six months of punishing conflict, the United States and Iran appear to be trapped in an uneasy and highly volatile stalemate. For several weeks, Washington and Tehran have exchanged both dire threats and diplomatic overtures, both sides insisting they have “won the war” but are also open to any reasonable cease-fire proposal from the other side. Is this an emerging “new normal,” and does it lay the groundwork for a viable regional status quo? Iran is being strangled by new U.S. sanctions and the blockade of its ports. The potential for a major U.S. strike, this time aimed at Iran’s critical infrastructure, remains a possibility – particularly as the postelection landscape in Washington takes shape. Yet Tehran retains the ability to retaliate powerfully against Washington’s Gulf Arab partners and, through them, against the global economy. Neither side appears to hold a decisive advantage. But each has at times believed it possessed greater leverage, and both have a great deal more to lose. Even so, the distance between their negotiating positions raises serious questions about whether anything more than another temporary and ultimately unsustainable cease-fire is possible.

What then are the alternatives? Can the current standoff give way to something less volatile and destructive? Can Washington and Tehran move beyond negotiating over commercial shipping rights to address the underlying dispute over Iran’s nuclear program? And what will this impasse mean for crucial third parties, including the Yemeni Houthis, Israel, and, especially, the Gulf Arab countries?

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