Gulf Security in a Multipolar World: Power Competition, Diversified Cooperation
The international relations of the Gulf Arab countries increasingly have been characterized by a diversification of partnerships, including in a field that has historically been deemed the preserve of the United States and European allies: arms trade, and defense and security cooperation.
The Gulf region has long been considered a “Western lake” – formally British with the colonial presence of the United Kingdom until the early 1970s, and less formally American given the continued military footprint of the United States, starting with the Naval Support Activity Bahrain. But lately the international relations of the Gulf countries increasingly have been characterized by a diversification of partnerships, including in a field that has historically been deemed the preserve of the United States and European allies: arms trade, and defense and security cooperation. What is the impetus for these new trends; what currents do they point to inside and outside the region; and are these dynamics likely to lead to a deep reshaping of Gulf security, with its center of gravity shifting away from traditional friends and guardians?
Giving an overview of evolving military cooperation and arms transfers between three Gulf Arab states (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) and emerging outside powers, this paper evaluates the relative weight of these new partnerships. Additionally, it argues that the dynamics of these new partnerships point to changing underlying power strategies of the Gulf states. Traditional powers involved in the region should take this multipolarization of Gulf security into account to build new cooperation schemes.
The role of Gulf Arab states in Russia-Ukraine mediation reflects their rising global influence and the benefits of hedging and balancing in foreign policy.
For the French president, hosting the two Gulf leaders in July may have been a calculated risk amid a more forgiving domestic and regional political context.
This first World Defense Show in Riyadh captured a moment in time when the kingdom’s economy, its international relations, and particularly its strategic relationship with the United States all seem to be at a turning point.
A new Conventional Arms Transfer policy based on human rights could have a major impact on the global arms trade and U.S.-Gulf relations, but questions remain as to whether recent announcements will lead to concrete policy shifts.
The UAE is increasingly looking to the maritime domain as an area of regional and global cooperation but also as a vessel of continued power projection.
On May 27, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining the Gulf Cooperation Council's impact on its member states, the Gulf, and international relations, 40 years after its founding.
AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead to assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region during the coming year.
