Iraq

On March 5, AGSI hosted a discussion on Iraq's internal and external challenges in navigating the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has exposed Iraq’s structural fragilities: territorial permeability, economic monoculture, energy dependence, and politically mediated sovereignty.

AGSI experts assess the trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy in 2026.

The government-formation crisis is a test of whether Iraq can assert genuine sovereignty in a system still shaped by foreign influence, factional vetoes, and constitutional loopholes.

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

The durability of recent peace gestures, energy deals, and revenue-sharing agreements will hinge on political consensus and restraint, both within Kurdistan and across Iraq’s fractured national landscape.

The flow of Kurdish oil via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to the international market after more than two years demonstrates the effectiveness of sustained U.S. diplomacy.

Decentralized governance efforts in the region, while offering promise to societies fractured by years of dictatorship and war, will be messy, inconsistent, and vulnerable to reversal and external manipulation.