Iran

The Gaza war has demonstrated the strategic utility and resilience of the detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, its longer-term sustainability may depend on unpredictable regional dynamics or other outside factors.

Targeted assassinations of skilled engineers, seasoned commanders, and intelligence operatives are no doubt taking a toll on the IRGC and the Quds Force but not enough for Iran to reconsider its attempt at containing the perceived threat from Israel.

While no immediate threat to the Islamic Republic’s survival, the gradual shrinking of the ruling elites presents a long-term threat to the regime in Iran.

The flare up between Iran and Pakistan may have been snuffed out quickly, but the scars it left on the Pakistani and Iranian security establishments may affect ties going forward.

The victory of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq’s provincial elections could exacerbate internal political tensions and raise concerns about regional stability.

Quds Force chief Brigadier General Ismail Qaani is likely to be succeeded by his deputy, but the role Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh currently plays in the organization remains obscure.

If history is any indication, the latest ISIL attack in Iran may serve to rally Iranians around the flag against a terrorist enemy and even strengthen the regime.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei presumably wants to choose his successor, but he cannot publicly name one without creating a rival undermining his own authority.