Iran

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election.

While regional dynamics support de-escalation between Bahrain and Iran, a host of obstacles and a potent history of bilateral grievances are likely to ensure anemic relations.

While Masoud Pezeshkian faces considerable challenges in the second round of the election, the pro-regime vote is likely to ensure Saeed Jalili's victory.

Developments with the Chabahar port could turn the trade corridor into a global hub by 2030, if the project can overcome financial hurdles, risks from sanctions, and security threats.

Three candidates have a realistic chance in Iran’s presidential election: strongman Qalibaf, reformist surgeon Pezeshkian, and zealot pen pusher Jalili.

By increasing attacks to the north, Israel may be aiming to provoke Hezbollah into a disproportionate response, justifying a harsher, more prolonged Israeli military response and in effect prolonging the war in Gaza.

The Guardian Council has again presented the Iranian public with presidential candidates who lack a political program, a social base, and the ability to mobilize voters.

Regardless of who becomes Iran’s next president or who succeeds Khamenei as head of state, there is little prospect for significant change in Iran's foreign and security policy.