Iran

Protests in Iran have sparked a change in narratives inside and outside of Iran suggesting there is no going back to the status quo.

While the strategic value of Iran’s drones seems limited thus far, Moscow seems to view them as an inexpensive – and punitive – way to maintain leverage in the conflict.

Recent Iranian military developments are a signal of the regime’s growing perception of vulnerability amid domestic unrest; its suppression strategy benefits from a military operation outside Iran’s borders that it can use to overstate separatist threats.

The demands of the protesters for regime change are a clear manifestation of the deep frustration and the loss of hope for reform among the Iranian public and seem to signal that the time is ripe for comprehensive change.

Poor organization and outsized financial support for pilgrimage blows back, inviting stinging criticisms of Raisi regime’s administrative competence and priorities.

Protests are likely to continue flaring up in Iran as a function of the regime’s attempt at modernizing the country while denying personal and political freedoms to the children of modernization.

On September 22, AGSIW hosted a discussion on political succession in Iran.

No matter who succeeds the supreme leader, the IRGC will be the most likely kingmaker.