Economy

Small and medium enterprises are central to Gulf diversification efforts, but strong, well-integrated support systems, including national small business administrations and public credit guarantee schemes, are needed to help them thrive.

The Gulf states want to reduce their dependence on expatriates without losing the professionals they still need for economic diversification. Pension reform is becoming part of that bargain.

The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.

Oman has benefitted from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, but continued conflict and Oman’s highwire neutrality balancing act mean that the sultanate’s economic windfall is still in danger.

France is positioning to be a more influential actor across the Middle East, but the European powerhouse is most likely to see immediate traction on the economic tracks that run to and from the Gulf.

Recent data suggests that the positive impact of a decade of reforms to improve Saudi labor market outcomes may now be waning.

The impact of the Iran war on the Saudi economy has been mitigated by investments in “economic resiliency,” including the East-West oil pipeline, relatively prudent fiscal policy, and the accumulation of a large stock of foreign financial assets.

Ports will be key focus areas of economic infrastructure buildout efforts as the region works to move beyond the Iran conflict.