Kenneth Katzman
Contributor
Kenneth Katzman is senior fellow at the Soufan Center and a senior advisor at the Global Insights Group. He left government service in 2022 after serving for 30 years as a senior analyst on Iran and the Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, which conducts research and analysis for the U.S. Congress. During that time, he testified before various congressional committees more than a dozen times and briefed Members of Congress on policy options toward the region on numerous occasions, including during several congressional delegations. He has served on several think-tank working groups developing options and recommendations for U.S. policymakers on issues in his area of expertise.
Analysis
The Obstacles to Getting to “Yes” With Iran
The ongoing negotiation process between the United States and Iran will be complex and volatile – while some of the most central issues might be soluble, sanctions issues might prove intractable.
Iran’s Options Narrowing Rapidly
With nearly all its obvious national security pathways closed, Iran might be left with no option other than to turn inward toward addressing its domestic strains while seeking de-escalation with adversaries and downplaying its drive for regional influence.
Iran Might Reevaluate its Strategy
The relative failure of Iranian missile strikes has significantly eroded the value of Tehran’s enormous investment in its missile and drone technology and raised serious questions among Iran’s regional allies about the ability of Tehran to come to their defense.
The Complications of Easing Iran Sanctions
Reopening the U.S. financial system to Iran might be one incentive to offer Tehran in possible follow-on talks, subsequent to a restoration of the JCPOA. Yet, even if offered, this sanctions relief might be difficult to put into practice.
Potential for Reducing Gulf Tensions
The diplomatic deadlock between the United States and Iran places the burden for preventing conflict on the European countries and some of the other trading partners of Iran.
