Operation Economic Outcast: Will Economic Pressure on Iran Work, and Are the Gulf Countries On Board?

In recent weeks, the United States has shifted focus from its military operation to a campaign against Iran’s economy. President Donald J. Trump described the new sanctions as an “economic D-Day” for Iran, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries and companies that do business with Tehran will face sanctions as part of “Operation Economic Outcast.” 

Iranian leaders are increasingly acknowledging the severity of Iran’s economic predicament and diminishing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, but that has yet to translate into a willingness to return to negotiations. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab countries have repeatedly found themselves caught in the crosshairs during the U.S.-Iran war, as Iran has targeted U.S. military assets and infrastructure in neighboring countries. While the United Arab Emirates has moved to decisively cut economic ties with Iran, others, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, may have different strategic calculations to make. 

What is Trump’s aim in intensifying economic pressure on Iran? Can the United States create sufficient pressure to force Tehran to return to the negotiating table without preconditions? Are Iran’s trading partners in the region and beyond willing to join this U.S. effort? Could Iran potentially respond to mounting economic pressure by resuming strikes on its Gulf neighbors?  

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