Yemen

AGSI experts assess the trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy in 2026.

The Houthis’ expanding partnerships with al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula are a growing threat to regional security and international shipping.

The STC’s failed attempt at independence likely means that Yemen won’t split along North and South lines.

On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year. 

The Southern Transitional Council is betting that if the South can be united under its leadership it can cordon the South off from the Houthis in the North, utilize oil and gas revenue, and create a stable and functioning state.

The Houthis appear to be following a North Korean playbook, using recurring cycles of provocation to extract concessions, forcing Saudi Arabia to carefully calculate its security ties.

The Houthis will likely use the deal in Gaza as an opportunity to regroup while looking to continue the fight in the future.

Negotiations in Riyadh will determine whether the Presidential Leadership Council emerges as a functional governing body or dissolves into a symbol of Yemen’s enduring divisions.