Iran

With nearly all its obvious national security pathways closed, Iran might be left with no option other than to turn inward toward addressing its domestic strains while seeking de-escalation with adversaries and downplaying its drive for regional influence.

The global oil market will be challenging for OPEC+ members in 2025, although the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports under the Trump administration may create space for production increases by other OPEC+ members.

While any U.S.-Iran rapprochement could potentially ease sanctions on Iran, such a shift is poised to generate sharply divergent responses among U.S. allies.

Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.

The relative failure of Iranian missile strikes has significantly eroded the value of Tehran’s enormous investment in its missile and drone technology and raised serious questions among Iran’s regional allies about the ability of Tehran to come to their defense.

Undeterred by the politically and militarily decapitated Hezbollah, Israel is free to target critical components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and Iran's perceived weakness may fuel domestic opposition.

Iran has the capacity and desire to produce more oil and gas, but the need for new investment and the uncertain outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November represent key challenges.

The Cabinet picks of Iran’s new president, largely technocrats, reflects Pezeshkian’s preference for consensus and continuity of former President Hassan Rouhani's foreign and economic policies.