Iran

The ongoing negotiation process between the United States and Iran will be complex and volatile – while some of the most central issues might be soluble, sanctions issues might prove intractable.

On April 29, AGSI hosted a discussion on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Proposed Russian investments may come in handy as Iran attempts to develop its gas infrastructure, but international sanctions and geopolitics pose major problems.

Iran’s supreme leader is facing a strategic dilemma in how to pursue diplomacy with the United States and project strength amid internal fracturing and ambiguity.

The convergence of internal dysfunction and external pressure has renewed speculation regarding the Iranian regime’s downfall and scenarios for a political transformation.

As Tehran and Moscow deepen their nuclear and space technology collaboration, concerns over dual-use applications and regional security implications grow.

With nearly all its obvious national security pathways closed, Iran might be left with no option other than to turn inward toward addressing its domestic strains while seeking de-escalation with adversaries and downplaying its drive for regional influence.

The global oil market will be challenging for OPEC+ members in 2025, although the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports under the Trump administration may create space for production increases by other OPEC+ members.