Politics and Governance

Anger and disillusionment over the Gaza war and rising confidence in their own national direction means Gulf publics are not as invested in U.S. political outcomes.

Any escalation in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel could heighten the Gulf states’ vulnerability to being caught in the crossfire.

On U.S.-Gulf relations, a Harris administration would inherit a well-established framework to advance – one it is unlikely to abandon.

Whether or not former President Donald J. Trump wins the presidency for a second time, his commercial brand will remain a visible feature of the Gulf region.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on the Saudi economy in 2025, but policy differences between the two candidates could have longer-term implications for the kingdom.

While Iraqi leaders consistently emphasize the importance of Western investment in their energy sector, their actions instead are increasing Iraq’s dependence on Chinese markets and oil firms.

The short-term effects of the U.S. presidential election for policy toward the Gulf region are likely to be minimal, though the most consequential effect may be indirect and long term.

Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.