Blog Post

After U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Iran’s collective leadership has concluded that the best defense is a good offense.

The Gulf states want to reduce their dependence on expatriates without losing the professionals they still need for economic diversification. Pension reform is becoming part of that bargain.

The war between the United States and Iran revealed the vulnerability of static U.S. bases, while also showcasing Gulf Arab states’ capacity – bolstered with U.S. hardware and training – to intercept most Iranian strikes on their own, raising new questions about U.S.-Gulf security partnerships.

Saudi-Emirati public reconciliation, a result of hard-earned lessons about the difficulty of going it alone, bodes well for a region at war and under attack, but there are still issues left to resolve.

Wartime pressure has temporarily aligned the leadership’s overriding interest in regime survival, even as its members continue to differ over the costs, methods, and ultimate objectives of the war.

Hitting the systems that keep Gulf populations supplied with water and power is a threshold Iran now appears willing to cross.

While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the necessities of governing under wartime conditions.

The outbreak of the Iran war has halted the deepening of the economic relationship between the United States and the Gulf countries. While likely temporary, it could take some time before the upward trajectory is restored.