Will a U.S.-Iran Deal Bring a New Order for the Gulf?

After months of war, attacks on critical infrastructure, disruptions to maritime trade, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, discussions surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement have accelerated through mediation efforts involving Pakistan and now Qatar. Yet beyond the immediate goal of de-escalation, much consideration is being given to the future architecture of Gulf security itself.  

Would a diplomatic breakthrough simply pause the current conflict, or could it reshape the balance of power in the Gulf for years to come? Will the long-standing Gulf security model, built around extensive U.S. military presence and external guarantees, begin to shift toward a more regionally driven framework? Could a phased U.S. military withdrawal reduce the likelihood of Gulf states becoming targets during future conflicts? Are Gulf states politically and militarily prepared to assume greater responsibility for their own collective defense? What would a realistic Gulf-led security framework look like in practice? And can Gulf states build meaningful deterrence against Iran without provoking a regional arms race? Would Iran genuinely moderate its behavior in exchange for sanctions relief and reduced U.S. military presence? 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.