Yemen

Houthi missile attacks on the UAE and U.S. military facilities expose a fragile Middle East calm.

If the Houthis believe their military offensive in Marib is in danger, they will likely look to the only real ally they have, Iran.

Over the year, there were some small steps forward on Yemen. But as diplomatic efforts continue in 2022, there will still be no quick fix to end the war.

UAE, Saudi, and affiliated local forces have begun withdrawing from locations across southern and western Yemen; while couched as “redeployments,” together the moves suggest the Saudi-led coalition is actively looking for an exit strategy.

With the Houthis making gains in their offensive on Marib, and anti-Houthi alliance fragmenting, the United States is out of options on Yemen.

Yemen’s fragmentation will have severe repercussions for U.S. foreign policy, regional stability, and, ultimately, international security.

As divisions among competing parties and the conflict persist, the economy is spiraling, leaving the majority of Yemenis without access to public services and without the means to meet their basic needs.

A new Conventional Arms Transfer policy based on human rights could have a major impact on the global arms trade and U.S.-Gulf relations, but questions remain as to whether recent announcements will lead to concrete policy shifts.