Energy

As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.

Aramco’s journey reflects not just the shift in Saudi energy policy but a broader reimagining of what national oil companies can achieve on the global stage.

The global oil market will be challenging for OPEC+ members in 2025, although the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports under the Trump administration may create space for production increases by other OPEC+ members.

Aramco is unlikely to be able to sustain its current dividend payout absent a strong rebound in oil revenue. A reduced dividend would have negative implications for the finances of the government and Public Investment Fund.

Recent agreements between the UAE and India are not only significant steps toward strengthening the bilateral partnership but also reducing the countries’ carbon footprint in the energy sector.

While Iraqi leaders consistently emphasize the importance of Western investment in their energy sector, their actions instead are increasing Iraq’s dependence on Chinese markets and oil firms.

The opposing candidates’ energy policy agendas have stark differences, and each will have ramifications for the Gulf oil exporters, the global climate agenda, and international trade relations.

On October 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the implications of regional conflict and the U.S. presidential election on oil prices.