The Abraham Accords at Three: Are They Successful and Will More Gulf Arab Countries Join?

It’s been almost three years since the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords agreeing to normalize relations with Israel. After that, Sudan and Morocco followed suit and joined the Abraham Accords. Yet the most significant player in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia, remains ambivalent about the accords and says it will not normalize relations with Israel until it reaches an agreement with the Palestinians. Nonetheless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said normalization with Saudi Arabia is one of his main policy goals, and the United States has made clear it considers Saudi-Israeli normalization a national security interest, while also actively exploring ways of promoting closer ties short of full diplomatic recognition. The issue was reportedly at the top of the agenda in visits to Saudi Arabia by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

 As the third anniversary of the accords approaches, how are they playing out for the parties? What are the primary successes thus far, and where have relations fallen short? How are sensitive issues, such as the Palestinian cause, the Israeli occupation, and the holy places in occupied East Jerusalem, affecting relations between Israel and Gulf Arab countries? What are the prospects for other Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, to join the Abraham Accords, and what measures short of full recognition might be achievable in the short run? What are the implications of provocative, extremist statements and actions by several high-ranking  ministers in the current Israeli Cabinet? How have the new arrangements affected regional strategic calculations, particularly regarding Iran and its network of militias in neighboring Arab countries?  

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.