Is a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli Grand Bargain a Real Possibility? A Conversation With Thomas L. Friedman

On July 27, New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman reported that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is considering a major push for a grand bargain between Israel and Saudi Arabia brokered by the United States. He wrote that recent trips to Riyadh by high-level U.S. officials were all related to exploring the possibility of an arrangement that would involve significant concessions from all parties to bring the two most significant U.S. military partners in the region into a formal understanding. According to Friedman, in such an arrangement, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel and pull back from stronger ties with China, while the United States would formalize strong security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, help develop the Saudi civilian nuclear program, and provide more sophisticated antimissile systems. But Israel would have to “make meaningful concessions” to the Palestinians in the occupied territories and forgo annexation, possibly forever. 

Why does Friedman believe the White House is strongly considering such an agenda? How can the key obstacles, particularly attitudes by the current Israeli Cabinet toward Palestinians, the occupation, and eventual annexation, be overcome? Is Saudi Arabia really ready to normalize ties with Israel in return for formal U.S. security guarantees? And does Biden have time to seriously pursue this before he is engulfed in the 2024 presidential campaign?  

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.