The Challenge of Gulf-China Ties: Reassessing Beijing’s Role After the Iran War

The war with Iran has forced Gulf Arab states to take a harder look at their relationships with Washington and Beijing. While frustration with the United States has grown, China’s cautious response to the conflict, and its reluctance to use its leverage with Tehran to help contain the war, has exposed the limits of Beijing’s role as a potential Gulf security partner. For Gulf states that have invested heavily in deeper economic and diplomatic ties with China, the war raises a fundamental question around Beijing’s ability to translate its growing economic influence in the Gulf into meaningful strategic and security engagement.  

Has China’s response to the war fundamentally altered Gulf Arab perceptions of Beijing as a strategic partner? How much leverage does China have over Iran, and is Beijing willing to use it? What do the war and broader trends in Chinese regional engagement reveal about the extent of China’s “no-limits” partnerships with both Iran and the Gulf Arab states? Will Gulf Arab states continue to view China as an important dimension of efforts to diversify international partnerships despite Beijing’s limited security role, or will the war reinforce the regional influence of the United States? And what are the key Chinese interests in the Middle East moving forward? 

The views represented herein are the author's or speaker's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSI, its staff, or its board of directors.