U.S. Strike on Iran: Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

On June 21, President Donald J. Trump ordered massive conventional military attacks on three of Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear sites: the Fordow facility buried deep in the mountains near the holy city of Qom as well as facilities at Natanz and Isfahan. Trump declared all three “utterly obliterated,” although the true extent of damage is not publicly known.  

Trump is demanding that Iran come to terms with the United States but also seems to cast the attacks as a “one-and-done” operation. Meanwhile, the “war of the cities” between Israel and Iran continues with both parties insisting they will keep attacking each other with missile and drone strikes. Israel is plainly hoping the United States has joined its war, but Washington and Tehran seemingly are hoping that can be avoided, even though Iran is not indicating any renewed willingness to return to the already suspended nuclear negotiations with Washington in Oman.

Has the United States fully joined Israel’s war, or will either Washington or Tehran take urgent steps to avoid that? Will Gulf Arab countries, which are seeking to limit conflict and instability in their region, be able to contribute to de-escalation in the coming days? How stable is the Iranian regime after days of battering by Israel and this apparently massive U.S. attack? What will Israel do next, given the U.S. intervention, and will Washington now pivot to pressuring the Israelis to end the conflict? And how will this strike, which has badly split Trump’s coalition between interventionist and isolationist factions, help shape U.S. foreign policy in the Gulf region and the broader Middle East for the remainder of Trump’s second term? 

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