Yemen at a Crossroads: Are New Conflict Dynamics Reshaping the Country’s Future?

Recent developments in Yemen’s war, in particular violent clashes between forces operating within the Saudi-led coalition supporting President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, have focused attention anew on deep North-South fissures, the viability of the internationally recognized government, and the boost Houthi rebels have received from the drawdown of Emirati forces. What appears certain is that the dynamics of Yemen’s protracted war have changed materially: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have invested deeply in the conflict, are seeking to protect both national security and economic interests. An emboldened Houthi insurgency seems determined to press its advantage. Even extremist and terrorist groups have re-emerged to assert their capacity to act as spoilers in any political settlement.

Have the Houthi rebels, for all intents and purposes, won Yemen’s war? Is the notion of a unified Yemeni state yet another casualty of the conflict? How are neighboring countries calculating the impact of recent events on their core interests? Have Saudi Arabia and the UAE unleashed forces in Yemen that will threaten these interests and test their alliance?

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