In Conversation With Raghida Dergham: Israel’s Escalation, Hezbollah’s Meltdown

With a massive escalation at the end of September that included the killing of Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and many other senior Hezbollah officials, Israel made good on months of dire threats against the Lebanese militant group. Hezbollah is now in a severe crisis, with most of its leadership and much of its second and third tier operatives killed or injured and large amounts of its heavy equipment, missiles, and rocket launchers destroyed. Nonetheless, the group and its Iranian backers still have options to retaliate against Israel, now and into the future. What will come next from all parties is unclear, but the Lebanese state and people once again find themselves at the mercy of actors well beyond their influence, let alone control. The U.S. policy of conflict containment in Gaza is now damaged by partners as well as adversaries. What explains the calculations of the engaged parties, and what scenarios might unfold in coming days and over time? What impact might these developments have on Gulf Arab interests and strategic considerations?

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