Caught in the Crossfire: Iraq and the Expanding Regional War

Iraq stands at a vulnerable epicenter amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Its unique geopolitical positioning bordering Iran, hosting U.S. forces, and maintaining complex political and economic ties across the region magnify both its vulnerabilities and political leverage. During this critical time, Baghdad must navigate constitutional constraints, the influence of Iran-aligned armed groups, and the broader regional fallout of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, internal government formation challenges further complicate Iraq’s path forward.  

However, in this moment of heightened regional volatility, Iraq has the opportunity to unify domestically and strategically leverage its “compressed sovereignty” state to mediate or extract concessions. Iraq’s choices will determine whether it remains a battleground for others or emerges as a pivotal diplomatic actor in its own right. 

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